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Fundamentals

Foundations and concepts of prediction markets.

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Introduction to Prediction Markets: How They Work and Why They Beat Polls

A complete primer on prediction markets — how they aggregate information into prices, why they outperform polls, and how to read market-implied probab...

Build a clear foundation before trading forecasts.

This category explains the core ideas behind prediction markets: how probabilities become prices, why liquidity matters, and how market participants turn information into tradable expectations.

What you will learn

Start here to understand binary outcomes, market prices, implied probability, settlement rules, liquidity, and the incentives that make prediction markets useful as information engines.

Why it matters

A strong foundation makes every later topic easier. Once the mechanics are clear, strategy, risk management, and market design become easier to evaluate without relying on hype.

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Introduction to Prediction Markets: How They Work and Why They Beat Polls

A complete primer on prediction markets — how they aggregate information into prices, why they outperform polls, and how to read market-implied probab...

Comparing AMM Liquidity Models: LMSR vs LSAMM vs CPMM vs Hybrid

A deep comparison of fixed, dynamic and hybrid liquidity models for prediction market AMMs — with trade-offs, subsidy math, and guidance on which to c...

LSAMM Algorithm Explained: The Logarithmic Scoring AMM Behind Modern Prediction Markets

A deep dive into the LSAMM algorithm — how it prices outcomes, scales liquidity with volume, and stays solvent under any market load. With math, code...

Binary vs Multiple Outcome Markets: How to Choose the Right Market Structure

Three market structures dominate prediction platforms — binary (Yes/No), multi-outcome and grouped binaries. Learn how each shapes liquidity, payouts,...