Prediction markets, decoded.
Long-form analysis, market mechanics and weekly forecasts.
12 articles
Updated weekly
Recent articles
AI-Assisted Market Creation: How LLMs Help Build Better Prediction Markets
How AI helps prediction market teams discover, draft, and maintain better questions without removing human review — with a practical pipeline, prompt...
Regulatory Paths for Prediction Markets: Jurisdiction, Structure and Compliance
How jurisdiction, market type, settlement design and compliance architecture shape the regulatory future of prediction platforms — with practical guid...
Bankroll Frameworks for Information Traders: Turning Edge into Repeatable Sizing
A complete bankroll framework for prediction market traders — risk buckets, fractional Kelly, category caps and the journaling discipline that turns i...
Categories
For you to explore
Introduction to Prediction Markets: How They Work and Why They Beat Polls
A complete primer on prediction markets — how they aggregate information into prices, why they outperform polls, and how to read market-implied probab...
Comparing AMM Liquidity Models: LMSR vs LSAMM vs CPMM vs Hybrid
A deep comparison of fixed, dynamic and hybrid liquidity models for prediction market AMMs — with trade-offs, subsidy math, and guidance on which to c...
Category Design for Market Discovery: Topic Architecture, Liquidity and SEO
How category architecture shapes user discovery, liquidity clustering, search visibility and signal quality on prediction market platforms — with a pr...
LSAMM Algorithm Explained: The Logarithmic Scoring AMM Behind Modern Prediction Markets
A deep dive into the LSAMM algorithm — how it prices outcomes, scales liquidity with volume, and stays solvent under any market load. With math, code...
Forecast Calibration Playbook: How to Measure Honest Probabilities
A complete playbook for measuring whether your prediction market probabilities match reality — with bucket analysis, Brier scoring, and the discipline...